Africa in Transition
Campbell tracks political and security developments across sub-Saharan Africa.
South Africa’s African National Congress Celebrates its Centenary
by John Campbell
South Africa's President Jacob Zuma (R) pose with former president Thabo Mbeki during the lighting up ceremony of the centenary torch ahead of the upcoming African National Congress (ANC) centenary celebration in Bloemfontein January 8, 2012. (Siphiwe Sibeko/Courtesy Reuters
On Sunday, the African National Congress (ANC) celebrated its one-hundredth birthday. Though it is notoriously riddled with factions, all was sweetness and light. South African president and ANC party leader Jacob Zuma and Thabo Mbeki, whom Zuma had previously deposed, participated in an elaborate — and largely meaningless — ceremony of reconciliation. Nelson Mandela, the hero and a major architect of the transition to non-racial democracy did not attend because of his fragile health.
Nigeria: Fuel Subsidy Strikes Continue
by John Campbell
Demonstrators gather at a burning barricade during a protest against the elimination of a popular fuel subsidy that has doubled the price of petrol, at Gwagwalada on the outskirts of Nigeria's capital Abuja January 9, 2012. (Afolabi Sotunde/Courtesy Reuters)
The strikes appear to be gainingmomentum, with oil and gas workers joining and some aviation shut down.
The protests appear to be the strongest in Lagos and Kano, Nigeria’s two largest cities and where there is a tradition of opposition to any government in Abuja. The oil workers joined the strike only on Tuesday morning, so it remains to be seen what the impact will be on Nigeria’s oil and gas production. Oil and gas are more than ninety percent of Nigeria’s exports and provide about eighty percent of the government’s revenue.
Jonathan and his political allies are seeking to rally support for the subsidy elimination. He appears to have the support of many – not all – of the governors. As a confidence building measure, Jonathan has announcedthe establishment of a blue ribbon panel to oversee the use of resources freed by elimination of the fuel subsidy. The economic arguments for elimination of the subsidy are widely rehearsed from official sources.
Congo-Kinshasa: The Other Shoe Hasn’t Dropped – Yet
by John Campbell
Supporters of incumbent President Joseph Kabila are seen celebrating through a banner with his image after provisional election results are announced in Democratic Republic of Congo's capital Kinshasa, December 9, 2011. (Stringer/Courtesy Reuters)
For Africa watchers, this morning’s attention is focused on Nigeria. Over the weekend, murder of Christians continued, ostensibly by an Islamic radical group, Boko Haram. Various ‘Christian’ spokesmen have threatened retaliation against Muslims and mosques have been attacked. But, in some areas, there are grassroots efforts to forestall religious conflict, with Christians protecting Muslims while they pray and Muslims guarding Christian churches. While the nation has gone on strike, President Goodluck Jonathan sought to mollify public anger at his elimination of the fuel subsidy, including by cutting government salaries(including his own). Preliminary reports are that the strike has shut-down Lagos, Abuja, and Kano and protestor deaths are being reported from Lagos and Kano. I have heard nothing from Port Harcourt and the oil patch except that police allegedlyprevented a protest from taking place in Bayelsa state. Personalities ranging from the president to literary icon Chinua Achebeare saying that the current situation recalls the run-up to the 1967-70 Biafra war. But, information is too incomplete, and too much is in flux for meaningful comment today. Read more »
#Occupy Nigeria
by John Campbell
A member of the Nigerian Bar Association holds up a placard to protest a fuel subsidy removal in Lagos January 5, 2012. (Akintunde Akinleye/Courtesy Reuters)
Anger at President Goodluck Jonathan’s elimination of the fuel subsidy appears to have united Nigerians in a way not seen for many years. There have been popular protests in virtually all of Nigeria’s major cities. According to the Nigerian press, protestors have shut-down economic activity in Lagos, Ibadan, and Kano. In the capital, Abuja, most gas stations are closed. It is likely that road haulage will decline in the face of a tripling of gasoline prices since the end of the fuel subsidy– most Nigerian goods move by road. It remains to be seen when or if civil aviation will be affected.Read more »
An Earlier Congo Election
by John Campbell
Supporters of opposition UDPS leader Etienne Tshisekedi gather in Democratic Republic of Congo's capital Kinshasa, December 23, 2011. (Stringer/Courtesy Reuters)
A Nigerian Spring?
by John Campbell
A vendor displays a newspaper showing headlines of an increment in the price of petrol in Lagos January 2, 2012. (Akintunde Akinleye/Courtesy Reuters)
Nigera’s “War on Terror” and the Fuel Subsidy Ends
by John Campbell
A protester walks past burning tyres while biting a lighter during a rally against fuel subsidy removal on Ikorodu road in Nigeria's commercial capital Lagos January 3, 2012. (Akintunde Akinleye/Courtesy Reuters)
Boko Haram Christmas Bombings
by John Campbell
A car burns at the scene of a bomb explosion at St. Theresa Catholic Church at Madalla, Suleja, just outside Nigeria's capital Abuja, December 25, 2011. (Afolabi Sotunde/Courtesy Reuters)
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